IL-16: Politico reports that Gene Koprowski, a former civil servant with a conservative think tank called the Heartland Institute, is already “running” against Rep. Adam Kinzinger, but all he appears to have done is filing with the FEC. Koprowski doesn’t appear to have a social media presence and when he started a campaign he managed to get no attention from the local press. However, he became aware in 2018 when HuffPost reported that he was accused of following a female colleague and that senior Heartland officials wanted to protect him.
WED-03: Army National Guard veteran Tom Norton, who unsuccessfully sought the GOP nod in Michigan 3rd District last year when it was an open seat last year, will face Rep. Peter Meijer again. Norton raised very little, taking a distant third place with just 16% of the vote. His Twitter feed includes comments like, “If there’s no gender, how can @KamalaHarris be a historical woman?” and “If your gay man is gay, that’s your right. But if you remove a body part, you’re not a woman, you’re still a man. We’re normalizing ourselves crazy.”
WED-06: There have been no reports of setbacks against veteran Rep. Fred Upton, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any. A relative pragmatist in today’s GOP, Upton has been targeted many times in primaries for his past littering, and last year he scored a relatively soft 63:37 win over businesswoman Elena Oelke, who apparently didn’t raise any money at all.
NY-24: Local Republican and Conservative Party officials are pretty mad at Rep. John Katko, although there is really no primary challenge yet. Katko, however, was already on thin ice with the Conservative Party, which he enraged last cycle when he supported a bill condemning Trump’s ban on transgender Americans serving in the armed forces. Some (but not all) of the damage was later repaired, but the loss of Conservative support could prove very dangerous: in 2018, Katko defeated Democrat Dana Balter by 13,694 votes and received 16,972 votes in the Conservative Party line. New York’s 24th is one of only two districts Joe Biden has won on that list (along with California’s 21st), so defects on Katko’s right flank could cause him serious problems in both the general and primary elections.
OH-16: Former Rep. Christina Hagan, who visited Ohio’s 16th District, isn’t ruling out a challenge for Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, Politico says. Hagan lost 53-41 in the GOP area code to Gonzalez in 2018 when the 16th opened, and ran unsuccessfully in the neighboring 13th district last year, falling 52-45 to Democratic MP Tim Ryan.
SC-07: We have already written about two Republicans pondering challenges for Rep. Tom Rice, but now a third is threatening to join the fight. Former NYPD officer John Cummings, who raised $ 11 million in a futile bid against AOC last year, is reportedly considering taking his Grift show south for a potential main bid. Rice is possibly the most at-risk Republican on this list as South Carolina, among those nine states alone, will need runoff elections if neither candidate wins a majority, meaning Rice can’t limit his hopes for survival to renominations by a mere plurality to win.
WA-03, WA-04: Washington 3rd and 4th District Republican leaders are insane and expect both Reps Jaime Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse to face major challenges, although no names are known yet. However, like Valadao, both enjoy some level of protection thanks to Washington’s top 2 primary system, which works just like California’s.
WY-AL: Politico reports that Air Force veteran Bryan Miller is “expected” to face Rep. Liz Cheney, although he says nothing about his plans in a brief quote. Paradoxically, if it does, it could be good news for Cheney, as she has already landed a credible opponent, Senator Anthony Bouchard, the other day. Unlike Tom Rice in South Carolina, since Wyoming has no drains, Cheney could escape with a multitude.