Furthermore, a political transformation is imminent in a few weeks’ time, when the climate science denier who maliciously occupies the White House is ousted by a president who not only recognizes that we have a severe climate crisis, but has also nominated some people for high posts who can rightly be called climate hawks. The re-entry into the Paris Agreement and the commitment to stronger action could change the international dynamics in order to achieve the goal of keeping global temperature rises no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels this century.
A major problem undermines this good news. We are not moving fast enough in the United States, nor are other nations able to promote the proliferation of these technologies and contain emissions with sufficient force or speed.
And another problem, especially for Americans. Even if we win both Senate seats in the Georgia runoff, there will still be a large cohort of Congressional Republicans who consider the basic facts of climate change controversial (or say so to keep corporate campaign dollars in the door) . . They are backed by a cohort of less reactionary Republicans and some Democrats who claim to accept climate science but prove that they don’t really do so by putting their feet up when it comes to supporting serious laws that interfere with them Accelerate related transformations.
In October, BloombergNEF, a provider of research on clean energy, advanced transport, and innovative technologies and raw materials, released its New Energy Outlook 2020. (Without paying a fortune, only the 30-page executive summary is available to the public.) The report analyzes Up-to-date data and trends to create forecasts and forecasts for the Economic Transition Scenario (ETS) with regard to the diffusion of available technologies by 2050. In its climate scenario, the BNEF team investigated possible ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This year her focus was on the path to clean electricity and green hydrogen.
In the transition scenario of the report, electricity generation capacity (given here in gigawatts) will almost triple by 2050, with solar and wind power increasing sharply. However, BloombergNEF analysts say fossil fuels will continue to be in the mix.
What their data shows is what countless other researchers have found out too – we just aren’t moving fast enough to contain emissions and transform a sector. Not even solar and wind is now the cheapest option for new power generation here and in dozens of other nations.
BNEF’s ETS projections for 2050 show a mixed bag with some obvious positive results. But overall, while progress is being made, it is not happening fast enough. Scientists say that without policy changes we are consistently heading for a rise of 3 degrees Celsius by 2100. A devastating result.
While the ETS predicts that cumulative emissions from all sectors will decrease every year through 2050, total emissions in 30 years in this scenario would still be double the carbon budget we have for a 67% chance, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change limit global warming to less than 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. BNEF predicts an estimated global warming of 2.2 degrees by 2050 and 3.3 degrees by the end of the 21st century.
• • According to the report, direct emissions from transport increased by about 10% in 2033 compared to 2019. By 2050, electric vehicle sales will reduce emissions by 12% below pre-pandemic levels. And oil consumption in the transport sector will decrease compared to today By 2050 47 million barrels a day to 27.7 million barrels a day. As BNEF notes, however, this is far from being a “climate-safe trajectory”.
• • B.By 2050, EVs are projected to account for 73% of all vehicle sales and 54% of the world’s passenger car fleet, but higher in other locations, perhaps up to 80% in Europe, the US and China. Of the 1.5 billion passenger vehicles that were on the road in 2050, 800 million will be electric vehicles, according to the BNEF. A big part of this transition will be the ongoing decline in battery prices, which has already fallen 86% since 2010 and is expected to cost less than 50% of today’s price by 2030. In 30 years, however, almost half of the world’s vehicles will still use fossil fuels, which is also not a “climate-safe trajectory”.
• • W.According to BNEF, global electricity generation capacity will increase by 2050. Renewable energies will rise from 35% in 2019 – almost half of it from hydropower – to 68% in 2050 as wind and photovoltaics expand rapidly. The capacity to generate fossil fuels will drop from 56% in 2019 to 24% in 2050. Again, this is not a “climate-safe trajectory”.
• • The report predicts that Europe, wind and photovoltaics will account for 74% of electricity in 2050. Wind dominates with more than 50% of the generation capacity in 2050. Coal consumption in Europe is practically gone by 2030, with gas consumption in 2050 falling to only 10% of generation. Gas consumption in the US will continue to represent 33% of generating capacity in 2050, with wind increasing from 8% in 2019 to 24%. Coal power in China will drop to 20% of total generation in 2050, down from 64% today. Renewable energies in China will account for 59% of capacity and 54% of generation in 2050. China’s electricity mix would then be 82% carbon-free and emissions 62% below 2020.
• • Electric vehicles will only provide a third of the commercial vehicle kilometers traveled in 2050.
• • In shipping, fossil fuel consumption will only decrease by 8% in 2050 and emissions by only 30% in 2050.
• • F.Jet fuel sourced from Ossil is expected to be used for more than 98.5% of all airplane kilometers flown in 2050.
• • Today’s passenger rail is 76% electric and will reach 84% by 2050. The freight railway is now only 56% electric and will increase to 70% by 2050.
• • Naturally According to the BNEF, gas consumption in buildings will increase by 33% between 2019 and 2050.
• • The researchers estimate that emissions from energy consumption in buildings will increase by 26% between 2019 and 2050. Most of this will come from the growth in gas and oil consumption in India and other rapidly developing countries. Emissions in China, the US and Europe will also rise, but nowhere near as much.
The BNEF’s climate scenario offers a much better picture with significantly lower emissions and more extensive electrification than the ETS. To get there, national governments from Washington to Beijing, from Strasbourg to Canberra would have to strive. And “there” in this hypothetical scenario still doesn’t go far enough.
The report concludes:
Expanding and decarbonizing the power system to warm up to 1.75 degrees Celsius would require around $ 35.1 trillion of investments in power plants and batteries over the next three decades. That’s almost double the $ 15.1 trillion needed in our economic transition scenario. Add to that $ 28.7 trillion for the power grid, between $ 11.6 trillion and $ 35.1 trillion for additional dedicated energy capacity to produce hydrogen, and between $ 0.7 trillion and $ 2.7 trillion for the Hydrogen storage and between $ 1.9 trillion and $ 28 trillion for hydrogen transportation. Overall, our path to clean electricity and green hydrogen to well below 2 degrees will require between 78 trillion and 130 trillion US dollars in new investments by 2050.
Please always faster.