Biden managed to win five from the congressional districts of Grand Canyon State, who was one more than Clinton while the remaining four again went for Trump; All Biden seats were represented by Democrats, while the Trump seats remained in Republican hands. Biden also improved Clinton’s victory margin everywhere except in the 3rd and 7th Districts, which are the most Democratic seats in the state. You can You can find a larger version of our map here.
We’ll start with a look at the 1st District, which is the only District that went from Trump in 2016 to Biden this year. This sprawling constituency in the northeastern part of the state had backed Mitt Romney 50-48 before going for Trump with an even tighter 48-47, but Biden took him 50-48 this time. Democratic MP Tom O’Halleran, who previously served as a moderate Republican in the legislature, won a third term 52-48 against Republican Tiffany Shedd in a race that drew millions of editions from outside groups on both sides.
Biden also made big wins on two seats that were competitive just a few years ago but quickly turned away from the GOP. The 2nd District in the eastern Tucson area had supported Romney 50-48 before settling on Clinton 50-44. The seat moved further to the left this time, backing Biden 55-44 and Democratic MP Ann Kirkpatrick prevailed with a similar lead of 55-45.
The shift in the past decade has been even more dramatic in Democratic Rep. Greg Stanton’s 9th Ward, which is home to central Phoenix and the eastern suburbs. The seat backed Obama 51-47 in 2012 before choosing Clinton by a 55-38 lead. Biden took it with an even bigger 61-37, making this his biggest improvement over Clinton’s margin in any of the state’s nine counties.
Biden did best in the 3rd and 7th districts, but as noted above, his profit margin was lower than Clinton’s four years ago, despite receiving a larger percentage of the vote (and more raw votes). Rep. Raul Grijalva’s 3rd Ward, stretching from the Yuma area west to Tucson, moved from 62-33 Clinton to 63-36 Biden.
Rep. Ruben Gallego’s 7th Ward, based in Phoenix, went from 72-23 Clinton to 74-25 Biden, a 0.17% drift to the right. Both seats are strong latino, a Demographics moving towards Trump in many places, although the shifts here were significantly smaller than in several comparable seats in neighboring California.
We now turn to the four Trump seats. The National Democrats made every effort to remove the seat The scandalous Republican MP David Schweikert in the 6th district a once safe red seat in Scottsdale and North Phoenix, which had moved from 60-39 Romney to 52-42 Trump. Trump’s winning margin dipped to 51-47 this time around, but that was enough to carry Schweikert to a 52-48 victory on the Democrat Hiral Tipirneni.
Trump played a vital role in the remaining three counties, but Biden made profits on each. Trump’s profit margin in the 5th Ward of Rep. Andy Biggs in the suburbs of Phoenix, Mesa and Gilbert, shrank from 58-37 to 56-42, his second largest decline in the state since the 9th. The shift was in another suburb of Phoenix , District 8 of Rep. Debbie Lesko, was only slightly lower, where Trump’s margin fell from 58-37 to 57-41.
The huge 4th district of Rep. Paul Gosar in the north of the state was meanwhile again Trump’s by far the best seat in the state, although Biden was still trending up a little here: While Trump won 68-28 here in 2016, he was wearing it this time Seat 68-31.
Arizona’s congressional and legislative cards are made by a non-partisan commission, but Republicans went out of their way to get them down. In 2015, the Supreme Court upheld the panel’s constitutionality by just a 5 to 4 margin, and since then the court has moved to the right. If the commission is crushed, the Republican-controlled state government would control the card-making process.