New polls sign a attainable decline in GOP voter turnout in upcoming elections

Overall, 75% of respondents said voting made them more likely to vote in the next presidential contest, while only 11% said they were less likely to do so. However, the partisan collapse was remarkable: 84% of Democrats said they were more likely to vote, but only 69% of Republicans agreed, a 15 point difference. In fact, 16% of GOP respondents said they would be less likely to vote next, compared to just 6% of Democrats who said the same thing.

The results are to be pinched with a grain of salt for a number of reasons, including failure of polls throughout the 2020 cycle to pinpoint support for Trump. But even if that poll didn’t find the right mix of Conservative voters, the answers are still meaningful for Republicans who took part in the poll. As Aaron Blake of the Washington Post notes, self-identified Trump voters were the group most likely to signal doubts about their future participation. Almost one in five (or 19%) said they would be less likely to vote next time.

The results generally reflect the potential for a slightly depressed GOP base leading into Georgia drains. And while it’s difficult – if anything – to say much about the turnout in these important January 5th races, the data may for GOP strategists already angry about the impact Trump’s continued attacks are having on the state’s electoral systems will not be welcome news on conservative voters.

The poll is also a departure from previous post-election polls. For example, in 2016, 80% of Democratic and Republican voters said the election made them more likely to vote in the next election. These results also agreed with the results from 2000. 80% of voters on both sides of the aisle said they would be more likely to vote next time, even if litigation continued after the elections over the outcome of the race.

The turnout in the Georgia runoff election is a total mystery. There are no comparable priorities for providing insights. We are all blind here, but at least the Democrats have won a victory in the state and are not burdened by an ongoing civil war within their party.

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