U.S. Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at the Get Out The Vote event on November 2, 2020 in Cleveland, Ohio, United States.
Kevin Lemarque | Reuters
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s consistent electoral lead over President Donald Trump shows signs of narrowing in key swing states on the eve of the elections.
Biden still has a strong advantage in most national voter polls and appears ready to maintain that sizeable lead in elections, which will last until election day. But the race is much closer in a handful of battlefield states that play a central role in the electoral college, which will ultimately determine the winner.
Here’s what national survey trackers said Monday afternoon:
Despite the slightly tightened averages in national polls, Biden is still way ahead of then-candidate Hillary Clinton’s position against Trump in the final days of the 2016 election. Clinton won the referendum in this race, but narrow defeats in key states ultimately cost her the White House .
Some of these states are neck-to-neck with Trump and Biden, according to survey averages.
RCP’s average of polls in six major battlefields – Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona – has led Biden Trump by 2.7 percentage points. Trump won all of these states in 2016.
North Carolina and Arizona, both of which have voted for GOP presidential candidates in most modern elections, are the closest races on this poll tracker.
The latest NBC News / Marist Arizona poll, released Monday afternoon, showed Biden and Trump in a dead heat. Both candidates had the support of 48% of likely voters, according to this poll, which translates into a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5%.
But that pollster also found that Biden was up 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, which won 20 votes and is considered by some analysts to be the top state in the elections. Biden had the support of 51% of likely Pennsylvania voters, compared to 46% for Trump, according to this poll, which had a 4.4% margin of error.
RCP’s survey average had Biden on Monday afternoon 2.9 points on Trump in Pennsylvania. A week earlier, Biden was 4.8 percentage points ahead.
Both candidates traveled to Pennsylvania for one final push on the final day before the election. Biden, who is rooted in Keystone State, has made more trips there than any other state since he was named Democrat.
“I think we’re going to have a great day tomorrow,” Trump said at a rally in Pennsylvania, the second of five on his schedule on Monday, as part of his search for key swing states. “I think you will see a great red wave tomorrow.”
The 2020 race has already set voter participation records: the total number of early votes and mail-in votes already accounted for around two thirds of all votes cast in 2016. In Texas – a traditionally Republican state that Democrats are hoping to turn blue in the current cycle – early voting has already exceeded the total number of ballots counted in 2016.
However, this phenomenon has raised concerns about how quickly the flood of mail-in votes is processed and counted.
According to the US election project, more Democrats than Republicans cast their votes by mail. However, some states count these votes later than others, leading to concerns that the total number of election nights may give a misleading picture of who is ahead of us before all the votes are counted.
Trump recently claimed on Twitter that the US “must have.” [its] final total on November 3rd “, although many states have already put systems in place to allow them to add votes after election day if they haven’t finished by then.
Meanwhile, analysts’ predictions continue to show that Biden is not only in favor of winning the electoral college, but that Democrats could significantly increase their majority in the House of Representatives and possibly even gain control of the GOP-led Senate.