Public polling has made it clear that Donald Trump is at risk of losing states that have historically voted for Republican presidential nominees.
A look at the states both Trump and Biden are visiting in the closing days of this campaign makes it clear that the incumbent president is on defense all over the electoral map.
New reporting on Saturday indicates that GOP officials are seeing the same thing in their internal polling, which is showing Trump losing in both Arizona and Georgia – two states Trump must win if he wants a second term in the White House.
According to The Washington Post, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) Kevin McLaughlin said Trump is “losing Arizona.”
“Trump won Arizona by 3.5 percentage points in 2016 and is now trailing Democrat Joe Biden, according to both public and private polling, which Republicans feel is why Sen. Martha McSally (R) is also trailing in her key race,” the report noted.
The Post also reports that NRSC officials believe Biden has hit the 50 percent threshold in Georgia. If that ends up playing out on Nov. 3, Trump will almost certainly be headed for defeat.
If that wasn’t bad enough for Republicans, there is also some concern in the party about states that should be firmly in the Republican column: Alaska and Kansas.
“Trump won Kansas by more than 20 percentage points in 2016, but now his lead is in the low single digits, according to Republicans, after bleeding support in the Kansas City suburbs,” The Washington Post reported. “Even in Alaska, which has only voted once, in 1964, for a Democratic president in its history, forcing the Republicans’ official campaign arm to spend cash to shore up Sen. Dan Sullivan (R).”
Trump is dragging the Republican Party down
It’s probably far-fetched to believe Joe Biden will win states like Alaska and Kansas, even if he does outperform expectations on Tuesday.
But single-digit leads for Trump in those dark red states are consistent with polling that shows Biden tied or ahead in Georgia and Texas, while narrowly leading in a state like Arizona.
If Biden is able to pick off even one of those states on Tuesday, it will be difficult for Trump to win a second term in the White House.
In fact, according to FiveThirtyEight, Biden has a 98 percent chance of winning the presidency if he were to carry Arizona. Biden’s chances exceed 99 percent if he were to carry either Georgia or Texas on Tuesday.
Ultimately, the idea that Republicans are sounding the alarm about historically red states is indicative of just how much Donald Trump is dragging the party down.
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Sean Colarossi currently resides in Cleveland, Ohio. He earned his Bachelor of Arts degree in Journalism from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and was an organizing fellow for both of President Obama’s presidential campaigns. He also worked with Planned Parenthood as an Affordable Care Act Outreach Organizer in 2014, helping northeast Ohio residents obtain health insurance coverage.