Abbreviated panel of specialists: A Trump working behind loses orientation


This isn't exactly a set of "likely voter" selection methods, but they're pretty close and, unlike my view of the 2017 Alabama special election, they show * very * slight variations.

– Mark Blumenthal (@MysteryPollster) October 9, 2020

Evan Siegfried / NBC:

Covid isn't the reason Trump is losing support from seniors. But it doesn't help him.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Covid turned older voters against Trump. But they started moving away from him in 2018 – and haven't stopped since.

Right now, President Donald Trump and the Republican Party are doing so badly with high-ranking American voters because of their response to Covid-19 – particularly because of the extremely inadequate policies and guidelines by the President, as well as the fact that seniors are among the most vulnerable populations in this Pandemic. However, this is a wrong assumption: the Shifting seniors away from Trump and the GOP began in 2018 at the latest, long before the pandemic.

The Republicans won the senior vote by only 2 points In the 2018 mid-term elections, state and national polls in 2019 showed the decline was continuing. ONE May 2019 Quinnipiac University survey In Pennsylvania, Trump lost 20 points among voters 65 and over. In October 2019 Quinnipiac Joe Biden led Trump by 51 to 45 percent nationwide. The trend continued through 2020 – and was interrupted by a Fox News Poll from June, when Biden led Trump by 10 points among the seniors.

Will Bunch /

The one terrible word that describes Trump, GOP 2020 election scheme: "deterrence"

A television station in the UK recently got their hands on a huge data cache that was in use four years ago from Cambridge Analytica – the shady political firm that was used by Donald Trump's election campaign and has long been a fascination for those of us who think the presidential election was tainted – to target a whopping 198 million Americans with ads, mostly on social media. That's actually more than the 138 million Americans who eventually went to the elections – but that may be the point. Enterprising journalists on UK broadcaster 4 found that millions of potential Hillary Clinton voters were identified by the one word "deterrent".

And a disproportionate number of those "deterrent" voices in 16 major battlefield nations were – you guessed it – African American.


And every day Trump engages in Fox News or hosts super-spreader events, he loses valuable time. 57% vote early and many plan to vote in the next 2 weeks!

– Katie Drapcho (@KDrapcho) October 9, 2020

New York Times:

Trump's battles ripple across the sun belt, endangering G.O.P. Hochburg

President Trump is fading nationally as he alienates women, seniors, and suburbanites, polls show. But private G.O.P. Surveys show that he is in close races even in solid red states.

The inflammatory behavior, which has alienated voters beyond his base, has long been the main barrier to Mr Trump's re-election. But a week after playing through the initial presidential debate and then being hospitalized with the coronavirus to further minimize the disease that has spread to his White House, the president's behavior not only undermines his own campaign, but threatens it his entire party.

New polls show Mr Trump's support nationally is crumbling as he alienates women, seniors and suburbanites. He not only follows on battlefields that must be won, but according to the private G.O.P. According to surveys, he is fighting off independents to the point where Mr Biden has come closer in solid red states including Montana, Kansas and Missouri.

The idea that "Trump is strong" has something to do with it as a campaign concept is blown up by his illness, but there is more electoral movement towards Joe Biden than away from Trump. It remains to be seen whether "You can't trust him" is more important than "He's not as strong as he claimed".


There are three reasons they refuse to respond: 1. Trump was symptomatic earlier than they tested him 2. Trump was positive earlier than advertised 3. Trump was not tested as often as they allowed.

– Brian A. Cahn, MD (@brian_cahn) October 9, 2020


THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS PROVEN ITSELF that the 18 acres on which the White House lies are a logic-free zone. Don't waste your time understanding something that's coming out there or going on because it's a fool's game and all you will have is a headache and a clenched jaw.

EXAMPLES: cancel a debate, postpone a debate, and then propose that the debate should be restarted. … And then there is how the administration dealt with Covid relief, which should actually be relatively easy, but has turned into massive chaos.

TRUMP CARD has spent the last few days waving between two completely different, irreconcilable Poles: not wanting a Covid auxiliary bill because it contains a "rescue operation" for blue states, and a "big deal" that definitely includes a rescue operation for blue states becomes . Square this circle. Or better yet.


"The president's fundamental challenge is to make people disbelieve him," says @guycecil, arguing that this explains why Trump's attacks on Biden and his own ads don't seem to have had much of an impact. "They just don't believe he's telling the truth."

– Edward-Isaac Dovere (@IsaacDovere) October 9, 2020

Kevin Robillard / HuffPost:

Republicans are fighting to defend Mitch McConnell's Senate majority

A small increase in donations turns deep red states into great Senate battlefields as the Democrats seek total control of the federal government.

Democrats have long been confident of defeating incumbent Republicans in Arizona and Colorado, and national strategists from both parties now agree that Maine GOP Senator Susan Collins will challenge Democratic State House Spokeswoman Sara Gideon, probably won't survive. Republicans have also been increasingly nervous about the reputation of North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis, despite a sex scandal with his Democratic opponent allowing Tillis to go on the offensive in a stable race.

The GOP has a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and the high likelihood that Republicans will oust Democratic Alabama Senator Doug Jones on election day next month means that the Democrats will have to defeat at least four incumbent Republicans to get that Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to remove control of the Senate (R-Ky.).

Republicans' hopes of maintaining their majority now rest on winning four races in a trio of states that both parties agree will be failures – Montana, Iowa, and Georgia – and one of the four States that exist now, somehow losing sight of victory tend to be democrats.


🚨 Gerrymandering Alert 🚨
Kansas Senate President Susan Wagle (R) told donors that Republicans need to maintain their #ksleg super-majority so they can create gerrymandered state and federal counties to undermine the will of voters and have complete control over the State by the Republicans.

– Davis Hammet (@Davis_Hammet) October 9, 2020

Just security:

Military Medical Ethics and Dr. Conley's misrepresentations of the President's health

By having the President's doctor, Dr. Sean Conley, and his colleagues in a white smock stood on the platform, they took advantage of the special trust that societies place in their healers. The “white lab coat” symbolizes the unique role that we members of the medical profession give.

Telling the truth has traditionally not been part of this role. Historically, doctors have routinely lied, or at least hid the truth from patients, because they were concerned about overloading them with bad news that no one wants to tell. Disguised in fancy terms such as “therapeutic privilege”, which began to change in the 1960s. Now patients expect their doctors to tell them what makes them sick and even to participate in their medical decisions with informed consent.

Today's patients rely on their doctors to carry out their duties and responsibilities truthfully and professionally. These ethical standards also apply to military doctors. Military commanders rely on the truthfulness and professionalism of their doctors to advise them on critical decisions such as: B. Authorizing a pilot to return to the cockpit, holding a soldier ready for action, giving an officer command, and so on Exercise courage to deliver unvarnished truth. Seeing military doctors bend or bury the truth is detrimental to the trust required for the system to work.

Nancy Kaffer / USA Today:

A kidnapping and murder attempt was directed against Gretchen Whitmer. It is no accident that she is a woman.

Being a woman in public life means receiving threats. But the kidnapping and murder conspiracy against Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer is a new level of horror.

Plans like the one revealed on Thursday may be underway in other states, just as the protests originally directed against Whitmer spread to other states and other governors. But it is no accident that Whitmer became the primary target of this hateful violence.

The revelation that a group of domestic terrorists was making Kidnap Whitmer and try her for treason, or just murder her. This is shocking, a new level of humiliation and horror when it looked like we had hit rock bottom.

But there is also something familiar about it. Almost inevitable.


"I knew that if I wrote about race, many of my white colleagues would consider it dubious journalism. I also knew that if I did not, the subject would hardly receive a sober examination on our pages."

– Nieman Reports (@NiemanReports) October 9, 2020

I have some speculative things to say:


This is important as the CDC suggests that "those with severe to critically ill or severely immunodeficient are unlikely to remain infectious for more than 20 days after symptoms appear," which means that Trump's incidence will be curtailed

– Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) October 9, 2020


I also suspect that Trump was not routinely tested prior to diagnosis, so there is no "final negative" test for Journos.

He's a big baby and he's probably scared of a swab on his nose. I bet he refused several times.

But maybe he knowingly exposed Biden and many others

– Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) October 9, 2020

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