The Civiqs poll of Texas for Daily Kos was conducted October 3-6, beginning the day after Trump was hospitalized with COVID-19. The results are mind-blowing.
DONALD TRUMP (R-INC)
JOE BIDEN (D)
Two percent says “someone else,” and just 1% is undecided, pointing to just how close this race has become. And that 1%? Republicans are 0% undecided. It’s Democrats and independents.
It’s hard to believe that Texas is legitimately a purple state, but this isn’t the first poll to see a tied race.
Yet another 48-48 result. This thing is real, everyone. The Economist’s modeled aggregate of all Texas polls only gave Trump a 3.2% edge before they take this new Civiqs poll into account. So this isn’t sneaking up on anyone. It’s been a real race for a while, it’s just hard to fully process that.
But yes, it’s real. Real real.
Winning Texas electoral votes would be fun, no doubt. But Biden doesn’t need them. You know what makes me extra excited? THIS:
John Cornyn (R-INC)
MJ Hegar (D)
Kerry McKennon (L)
David Collins (G)
This shouldn’t be a top-tier Senate race. Maybe third, or fourth? And here we are, neck and neck. Completely winnable. The undecideds here are a little tougher than in the presidential race—3% of Republicans and 6% of independents remain unsure. Not sure what those Republicans are waiting for. Also, screw that Green Party candidate. For the love of god, Texas progressives, don’t piss away that vote.
As always, the suburbs are the key to this year’s elections. In 2016, Trump won the suburbs 58-37, en route to a nine-point statewide win. Hillary Clinton won urban areas 53-42 and Trump won rural areas 70-26.
According to this new poll, Biden is winning urban areas 57-39, and losing rural areas 61-38. Both are improvements over 2016 Democratic performance. But the suburbs are where the real fireworks are happening, tied 49-49—a staggering 21-point net swing.
Trump is headed to a landslide defeat. It sure would be great to paint Texas in Blue after November 3. But that Senate race is the top prize, followed by the battle for control of the state legislature down ballot (and with that, a say in redrawing the state’s state and congressional districts).
These numbers, in context with all other available public polling and the actions of the Biden campaign, show that Texas is poised for November dramatics.