A new poll shows that Joe Biden is even roughly represented in two southern swing states with President Donald Trump, suggesting that the President's race could be competitive in the fall.
CBS News polls among registered voters released on Sunday show that Biden is close to Trump in North Carolina, with 48 percent support for the president's 44 percent and a close race in Georgia, with the alleged Democratic candidate at 46 Percent to Trump's 45 percent.
However, these leads can be even smaller than they appear – the North Carolina survey has an error rate of 3.9 percentage points, while the Georgia survey has an error rate of 3.4 percentage points. These margins mean that Trump could be just ahead in one or both states.
Trump won both states with relatively small profit margins in 2016, but the proximity of the candidates suggests that, as some national surveys suggest, Biden could reduce Trump's advantage over white voters – and that a federal bad response to the coronavirus Pandemic feelings could play a role in voters.
Overall, CBS respondents found that Trump's Georgia voters dropped 12 percentage points in Georgia and 7 percent in North Carolina compared to its 2016 results.
At the same time, Biden has to do with the white voters that Hillary Clinton came from in 2016. The survey participants predict that, given Biden's broad lead among black voters, the race will depend in part on how far Biden can get into the white poll. While other polls show that it has found its way among white voters in the upper Midwest – especially Michigan and Ohio – its gains among white people in the southern states have not been as strong.
Biden also has a slight lead among female voters in both states, as the new polls show, and a significant lead among black voters, while Trump received slightly cheaper grades for its economic performance.
Voters in both states say Biden would be better at handling the corona virus, although most Republicans say Trump is doing a good job with the pandemic.
North Carolina chose Obama in 2008 and Romney and Trump in 2012 and 2016, but Georgia hasn't won a Democratic presidential candidate since Bill Clinton's first run in 1992. In both states, democratic support comes mainly from major cities, which are largely powered by black voters in places like Raleigh and Atlanta.
These polls don't mean that Biden will win North Carolina or Georgia in November
Vox's statement, Li Zhou said polls are just a snapshot of a moment, and this presidential cycle is unusually turbulent and is taking place amid a pandemic and social unrest. The political situation in the United States could change dramatically in the months leading up to the elections, as was very different in January.
Voters change their minds; Some responding to polls don't vote in the end. As Zhou noted, excessive dependence on polls misled Democrats in 2016.
In the last presidential cycle, polls have overlooked all sorts of patterns, prompting Democrats to underestimate the strength of Trump's support in key battlefield countries.
After this election, Democrats found that respondents disregarded factors such as education when building their pool of respondents and did not take into account the undecided voters who voted for Trump at the last minute.
These errors, as well as the tendency to view the poll results as static rather than dynamic, led Democrats to overestimate their party's reputation in certain states – namely Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – and divert campaign resources from them and then get caught Watch through support for Trump's campaign.
Many respondents corrected the errors that distorted the polls four years ago, but these corrections do not negate the fact that polls like CBS in North Carolina and Georgia only show what people in those states are thinking about the candidates.
This means there is cause for caution in polls that leave Biden behind and Trump in these battlefield states, key Florida state, and more traditional republican states like Arizona and Texas.
And since the coronavirus pandemic continues to puzzle both campaign efforts and voter turnout models – and communities are struggling to implement an adequate substitute for personal voting – it can be rightly said that voters' intentions and voting patterns ultimately differ from each other in November can deviate.
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