Joe Biden's Democratic campaign for the White House has recently gotten a boost because President Donald Trump alienated voters with his divisive rhetoric, longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz told CNBC on Friday.
"This choice is absolutely not over yet. But Joe Biden has to lose," Luntz said in an interview with "Squawk Box". "You never count anyone, but it wasn't a good two weeks for Donald Trump."
"Biden has been pretty quiet lately" and he should stay that way because when he talks he does gaffes that Trump can take advantage of, Luntz said.
The last gaffe came during a campaign freeze in Pennsylvania, where Biden said on Thursday that the United States had "over 120 million deaths from Covid" when he tried to say over 100,000. Johns Hopkins University said Friday that the total deaths of Covid-19 in America exceeded 124,000 out of more than 2.4 million cases.
Trump tweeted Biden's misstep and wrote, "This is more than a normal mistake."
Luntz said Biden should "stay in his basement", where he had been banned from coronavirus for months, and "stay away from the media."
"The quieter [Biden] is, the better he is in the polls," said Luntz. "That should tell you something. The more Trump speaks – and I think it's the message, and I think it's what he says – the worse he shows up."
According to the national survey average of RealClearPolitics, Biden Trump leads by 10 percentage points.
More importantly, Luntz said: "The states that Donald Trump won in 2016 have now moved 6 to 10 points to Joe Biden. This is significant. It is beyond the margin of error."
Trump and Biden's campaigns did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.
Biden is also gaining favor on Wall Street, which has benefited greatly from Trump's 2017 corporate tax cut and his drive to eliminate corporate regulations. Even when the corona virus hit the market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 40% since Thursday's close on election day 2016 and 30% since Trump's inauguration 73 days later.
Various current and former financiers, analysts, lobbyists, lawyers, and political advisors with bank customers told CNBC that they are increasingly preparing for the possibility that former Vice President Trump could beat in the November election.
"They are ready to support anyone who gives them a sense of stability and a sense that things are calming down. That's why Biden has actually moved into the business world and people are now considering voting for him," said Luntz.
Luntz said the prospect of higher taxes under Biden doesn't hurt him in the polls.
"There is a greater acceptance of higher taxes than ever in my research today, and that goes back to Reagan-Mondale in 1984. That's how important it is; the willingness to pay for the expenses, the willingness to keep the economy going hold, willingness to give because of all the unrest out there, "said Luntz.
He said Trump should not try to use the same noise and harsh speech that worked four years ago when he shook the political establishment by beating Hillary Clinton. "Hillary Clinton was very easy to refuse. Donald Trump had her number."
However, Luntz added: "There is brittleness, anger, frustration, fear that exists in the American people that did not exist in 2016," referring to the double crises of the coronavirus pandemic and nationwide protests against racial inequalities by the murder of George Floyd by a white cop last month.
"Again, it's Donald Trump's language, not his politics," said Luntz. "The language he uses is not the language of the American people. He is very harsh. The public wants empathy. They want understanding. He talks about law and order. He should talk about public security. He talks about his Followers are warriors. " if people really want him to work for hard-working taxpayers. "